Community
Sharath Kuruganty
Q4 2025 Goodfin Community Intelligence Report
What our members are betting on—and why—heading into 2026
Private markets are notoriously opaque. Valuations shift between funding rounds. Deal terms stay buried in term sheets. And sentiment? That lives in group chats, dinner conversations, and investor memos that never see daylight.
We wanted to change that.
Three months ago, we launched the Goodfin Investor Ticker—a feature that lets members share their conviction on live deals. Not just whether they're bullish or bearish, but why. The detailed rationale. The sector thesis. The contrarian take.
The result: a proprietary signal layer built by investors who are actually deploying capital into these companies.
This report synthesizes insights from our community across Q4 2025—anonymized, aggregated, and cross-referenced with public market data. It's not a recommendation. It's a window into how sophisticated private market investors are thinking right now.
Aerospace & Space: The Conviction Is Real
No sector drew stronger bullish sentiment from our community than commercial space—specifically, the infrastructure layer enabling satellite internet and deep space exploration.
Community Sentiment: Overwhelmingly bullish, with multiple members already invested or actively considering positions.
One member summarized the thesis:
"Strong investor confidence in the long-term vision, including next-generation launch vehicles, Mars exploration, government contracts, and the rapidly expanding satellite internet business."
The sector fundamentals support this conviction. Commercial satellite internet crossed 9 million subscribers globally by December 2025, up from 4 million just 15 months earlier.¹ The leading constellation now accounts for roughly 65% of all active satellites in orbit.² Government contracts—including a recently disclosed $537 million Pentagon deal for military communications—are layering predictable revenue onto consumer subscription growth.³
But our community isn't uniformly bullish. One member offered a measured counterpoint:
"Valuations might be stretched, with perceived growth replacing good business fundamentals. On the flip side, the opportunity of cloud and edge computing in space for AI offers exponential revenue growth potential."
That tension—between valuation discipline and generational opportunity—defined much of the aerospace conversation this quarter.
Defense Tech: Following the Contracts
Defense technology emerged as a high-conviction sector, with members citing specific contract wins and manufacturing buildouts as catalysts.
Community Sentiment: Strongly bullish, with several members reporting existing positions.
The thesis centers on a fundamental shift in how the Pentagon procures weapons systems. One member captured it:
"Defense procurement is fundamentally shifting toward autonomous systems—the leaders in this space are winning that transition."
Another highlighted the concrete milestones:
"Mass production facilities are positioning for scale. A recent $22B AR headset contract win, plus $6B in global government contracts by year-end. This is real revenue, not speculation."
The defense tech sector saw extraordinary capital formation in 2025. Venture capital investments in defense companies rose 33% year-over-year, according to McKinsey.⁴ The US military budget crossed $1 trillion for the first time.⁵ Leading startups reached valuations that rival traditional defense primes, with top players securing contracts worth tens of billions for autonomous systems and AI-powered platforms.⁶
What's notable is the type of bullishness. Members aren't speculating on a concept—they're tracking executed contracts and production timelines.
Prediction Markets: The Breakout Year
If 2024 was the proof-of-concept year for prediction markets, 2025 was the year of institutional validation. Our community recognized it early.
Community Sentiment: High conviction across major platforms, with multiple members already invested.
One member on the crypto-native side:
"One of the fastest growing startups in tech right now. Bullish on the team and the way they operate."
Another focused on regulatory catalysts:
"CFTC approval changes everything. Billions in offshore volume, now coming home with full compliance."
On the regulated US side, members pointed to institutional traction:
"Explosive growth and institutional backing from Sequoia, a16z, Paradigm validates the model. Monthly volumes in the billions represent real traction."
The sector's 2025 numbers are staggering. Combined monthly volume across leading platforms exceeded $7 billion in October 2025—surpassing the previous record set during the 2024 US election.⁷ Total prediction market volume for 2025 is projected to approach $30 billion, nearly double that of 2024.⁸ Valuations followed: multiple platforms now sit between $9-11 billion, with major institutional investors—including the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange—taking significant positions.⁹
Critical Minerals: The National Security Trade
A less obvious but deeply researched sector among our members: rare earth elements and domestic supply chain security.
Community Sentiment: Bullish, with members citing government backing as de-risking the investment.
One member laid out the thesis with precision:
"Over $1.4B in government backing—$620M DOD loan plus $50M CHIPS Act equity stake. Contracts with every military branch. A 2027 Pentagon deadline bans China-sourced magnets. The only domestic company scaling rare earth production at speed."
The federal commitment to domestic rare earth production intensified throughout 2025. The Department of Defense's Office of Strategic Capital deployed hundreds of millions in conditional loan commitments, while the Commerce Department took direct equity positions in leading manufacturers—a rare move signaling strategic priority.¹⁰ The upcoming deadlines restricting China-sourced magnets in defense systems create structural demand: neodymium iron boron magnets are essential components in everything from fighter jets to AI data centers.
The investment thesis is less about near-term returns and more about structural positioning in a supply chain the Pentagon has deemed critical.
AI Infrastructure: The Picks-and-Shovels Play
Enterprise AI infrastructure attracted consistent interest, with members focused on companies enabling the buildout rather than competing at the model layer.
Community Sentiment: Bullish on enterprise data platforms, more measured on consumer-facing AI.
On enterprise data infrastructure, one member noted:
"Valuation is high, but this is an amazing company—growing fast, and every major institution wanting to adopt AI is using them."
Enterprise AI infrastructure saw massive capital deployment in 2025. Leading data platforms crossed $4-5 billion in annualized revenue, with AI-specific products alone exceeding $1 billion in run-rate. Valuations ranged from $100 to $ 134 billion for top players, with year-over-year growth rates exceeding 50%.¹¹
On consumer AI, members showed more skepticism. Regarding one high-profile AI lab, a member posed the fundamental question:
"Does anyone actually use this for serious work? Benchmarks are impressive, but market share versus the leading models seems limited."
The contrast is instructive: Our community rewards demonstrated enterprise traction over benchmark performance.
Nuclear Energy: The Long Horizon Bet
Advanced nuclear—specifically next-generation reactor designs—drew interest from members with longer time horizons and higher risk tolerance.
Community Sentiment: Cautiously bullish, with members acknowledging both the technical promise and execution risk.
One member called it plainly:
"Incredible, asymmetric opportunity. This is the future of abundant, industrial-scale power."
Another took a more measured view:
"Still deciding. Don't know much about the energy sector. However, the technology sounds interesting—less nuclear waste, and a potential nuclear-as-a-service model."
The advanced nuclear sector saw meaningful progress in 2025. Multiple startups secured government funding from programs like the European Innovation Council, with several approaching first-of-kind reactor tests at national laboratories.¹² The commercial model—delivering modular power in standardized containers—targets deployment by 2030.¹³ For members seeking asymmetric exposure to next-generation energy, the technical milestones are progressing.
Quantum Computing: The Speculative Edge
Quantum computing sits at the speculative end of our members' portfolios—high conviction from believers, with appropriate acknowledgment of timing risk.
Community Sentiment: Bullish among those with positions, described as a "high risk for high reward opportunity."
One member framed the upside case:
"This could be the NVIDIA of quantum hardware. Ideal for investors seeking exposure to foundational compute breakthroughs."
Another added context on the risk-reward calculus:
"Strong case for investing if quantum computing becomes commercially practical within the next decade. But execution, timelines, competition, and valuation all matter."
The Contrarian Corner
Not every deal drew bullish sentiment. Our community includes skeptics, and their reasoning offers a useful signal.
On high-valuation deals, one member questioned timing:
"Waiting for the valuation to come down. The company has potential in the long term, but the entry point matters."
On enterprise AI search, another flagged execution concerns:
"Cautiously optimistic but skeptical. Valuation feels stretched versus fundamentals. Heavy burn, crowded space, unclear path to liquidity. Strong investors, but worried about momentum capital chasing AI multiples rather than growth."
These dissenting views aren't noise—they're the discipline that separates sophisticated capital allocation from momentum chasing.
What This Data Tells Us
Three patterns emerged across Q4:
1. Government contracts matter. Whether in defense tech, critical minerals, or space, our members consistently cited federal commitments as de-risking mechanisms. This isn't about political alignment—it's about revenue visibility.
2. Execution beats narrative. The highest-conviction sectors—aerospace, defense, enterprise AI—share a common thread: demonstrated traction, not just compelling vision. Members are tracking contract wins, revenue multiples, and production timelines.
3. Valuation discipline persists. Even in bullish sectors, members flagged stretched valuations. The question isn't just "is this a good company?" but "is this a good entry point?"
Add Your Signal
The Goodfin Investor Ticker is live. If you're evaluating deals on our platform, your insights—bullish, bearish, or somewhere in between—become part of this collective intelligence layer.
Not just for the next report. For every member making allocation decisions.
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Sources
Starlink subscriber data — Starlink
Satellite constellation tracking — Jonathan McDowell, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
Pentagon communications contract — SpaceNews
Defense VC investment growth — Nasdaq, citing McKinsey
US military budget — Nasdaq
Defense tech contracts and valuations — Fortune
Prediction market monthly volume — Coinlaw
2025 prediction market volume projections — CF Benchmarks
Kalshi valuation — CoinDesk; Polymarket valuation and ICE investment — The Information
DOD and Commerce rare earth investments — U.S. Department of Commerce
Enterprise AI infrastructure metrics — Databricks Press Release
Advanced nuclear funding and development — Nuclear Engineering International
Modular reactor deployment timeline — Copenhagen Atomics
This report aggregates anonymized community insights from Q4 2025. It does not constitute investment advice. All members quoted have consented to their inclusion in anonymized form.
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