Goodfin Industry Brief
Oura drew orders for about four times the shares it planned to sell. It chose to wait anyway. Then, on October 26, Anthropic filed publicly to list. Here is what both tell you about owning great companies before they go public.
Key numbers
7: US IPOs of $50 million or more postponed or pulled in Q3 2026, up from 4 in Q2 and 3 in Q1
$6.2B: What the other 29 US IPOs of Q3 2026 (July through September) raised combined, once you set aside SK hynix’s $26.5B listing
$5.7T: Combined value of 992 US unicorns still private as of Q3 2026, per PitchBook
88.2%: Share of US venture fund dollars raised from January through September 2026 that went to firms raising their fourth fund or later
$16.3B: Anthropic’s revenue in the first half of 2026, per its public S-1, up from $1.2B a year earlier
In 60 seconds
Price, not demand, now decides who lists. Oura postponed its IPO on September 29 with strong orders on the book. Six other sizable US deals did the same in Q3 2026, after the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023.
The record year is narrower than it looks. US IPOs raised $32.8 billion in Q3 2026. One company raised $26.5 billion of it.
More value stays private, for longer. Venture investment is at a record, yet 992 US unicorns worth $5.7 trillion are still waiting for an exit. For private investors, patience, deal terms and manager selection now matter more than they did a year ago.
The biggest test is now on file. Anthropic made its S-1 public on October 26 and plans to list on Nasdaq as ANT. The filing shows $16.3 billion of first-half revenue and an $80.7 billion net loss, most of it a non-cash charge. The price range and share count are still blank.
Since Edition 01
We left you with two things to watch. One was postponed. The other just arrived.
What we were watching | What happened |
|---|---|
Oura’s IPO, expected to price the week of September 28 at $40 to $44 a share | Postponed on September 29, the day before trading was set to begin. Oura cited market uncertainty and has not set a new date. |
Anthropic’s listing, targeted for November | Filed publicly on October 26, for a Nasdaq listing under the ticker ANT. The price range and share count are still blank. The Wall Street Journal reports trading could begin as soon as the week of November 16. |
In September we called Oura “the first real read on demand for this fall’s listings.” We got that read: strong demand, but no agreement yet on price.
What happened to the IPO window?
It is still open. It just costs more to walk through.
Take Oura. The smart ring maker planned to sell 50 million shares at $40 to $44 each. Bloomberg reported that investors put in orders for roughly four times that many shares. On paper, that is strong demand.
Oura postponed the deal anyway. Renaissance Capital reported that some investors pushed back on the valuation. Strong orders and a postponed deal usually point to the same gap: buyers wanted the stock, just not at the price the company and its sellers had in mind. About 73% of the shares on offer were coming from existing holders, not from Oura itself.
“We have the luxury of choosing our moment,” CEO Tom Hale said. Profitable companies can afford to wait. That is exactly what Oura did.
It had company. Seven US IPOs of $50 million or more were postponed or pulled in Q3 2026, according to Renaissance Capital data cited by CNBC. Among them was Holtec Nuclear, which withdrew its planned $825 million offering in September.
Exhibit 1
Source: Renaissance Capital data, via CNBC, September 29, 2026. US offerings of $50 million or more, postponed or withdrawn, by quarter.
So why now? Look at rates. On September 16 the Federal Reserve voted 12 to 0 to raise its benchmark rate to 3.75% to 4.00%. It was the first increase since July 2023. The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% the same week, its highest level since 2007, and was above 5.2% on September 29, the day Oura stepped back. It peaked at about 5.30% the next day.
Why does that matter for a ring company? When a safe government bond pays 5%, investors demand more from anything riskier. They also pay less today for profits that arrive years from now. Young, fast-growing companies feel that first.
The Goodfin read: a postponed IPO is not a failed company. Oura’s prospectus showed revenue up 74% and net income of $60.8 million for the nine months to June 30. What changed was the market’s price for future growth. Companies that can wait often will, and that keeps more of the upside in private hands for longer.
How strong was Q3, really?
Weaker than the headline.
Thirty companies went public in the US in Q3 2026 (July through September) and raised $32.8 billion, according to Renaissance Capital. That sounds like a strong quarter. But one listing, SK hynix, raised $26.5 billion on its own. The other 29 raised about $6.2 billion combined.
Exhibit 2
Source: Renaissance Capital, 3Q 2026 US IPO Market Review (proceeds); Renaissance Capital ETFs, Q3 2026 performance recap (returns).
Newly public stocks also lagged in Q3. The Renaissance IPO ETF, which tracks recent US listings, fell 11.4% in Q3. The S&P 500 ETF rose 2.4%.
And the slide has continued. At the end of September, recent IPOs were still beating the S&P 500 for the year. By October 15, they were behind: the Renaissance IPO Index was up 12.1% year to date, against 14.2% for the S&P 500. The week of October 19, not a single IPO was on the US calendar.
Why this matters for private investors: one giant deal can make the whole market look open. Underneath, most companies found it hard to list in Q3, and the ones that did list lagged the broader market.
What does this mean for private holders?
More value is piling up inside private companies. The line to get out is getting longer.
The money keeps coming in. US venture deal value reached $515.8 billion from January through September 2026, about 44% above the full-year record set in 2021, according to the PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor. AI took 82.7% of it. Globally, Crunchbase counted 27 companies that raised rounds of $1 billion or more in Q3 2026, a record, up from 16 in Q2.
The exits have not kept pace. Just 18 venture-backed US companies went public in Q3, per PitchBook. Meanwhile, as of PitchBook’s Q3 2026 count, 992 US unicorns, worth a combined $5.7 trillion, are still private.
For some, the eventual exit has come well below the peak. Bending Spoons struck deals for both Airtable and Miro at prices well below their peak private valuations.
Exhibit 3
Sources: Inc.; Dealroom. Both deals are all cash, and both prices are enterprise values.
The Goodfin read: an IPO is not the only way investors get paid, and for many companies it may not be the most likely one. When you look at a private investment, map every route back to cash: an IPO, an acquisition, a secondary sale or a tender offer. Then ask how long each one could take.
Where is new venture money going?
Mostly to the biggest, most established managers.
US venture funds raised $108.5 billion from January through September 2026. Funds of $500 million or more were just 6% of the funds that closed, but they took 78.1% of the dollars.
Experience matters even more than size. Firms raising their fourth fund or later captured 88.2% of the money. First-time funds captured about 4.5%.
Exhibit 4
Source: PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor, Q3 2026. US venture funds, share of dollars raised, January to September 2026.
Only 81 first-time funds closed in the first nine months of the year. PitchBook says that puts 2026 on pace for the lowest count in a decade.
Why this matters if you invest through fund managers: when capital concentrates, the funds still raising tend to be either very large or very focused. Neither is better by default. A large, established manager brings a track record and access to big rounds. A smaller manager can be more selective, but faces a higher bar to raise its next fund.
The Goodfin read: a manager’s size and history are a starting point, not an answer. Ask what the strategy is, whether the fund size fits it, and how the manager plans to return your capital if the IPO window stays expensive.
What’s happening at the earliest stage?
While late-stage companies wait, the very first rounds are getting bigger. Almost all of them now run on SAFEs.
A SAFE, or Simple Agreement for Future Equity, is how most startups raise their first money. Instead of buying shares at a set price, you get the right to shares later, usually when the company raises a priced round. A valuation cap sets the highest valuation at which your SAFE converts. It protects you if the company’s value climbs fast.
Carta’s Q2 2026 data shows the shift. SAFEs made up 93% of pre-seed rounds and 95% of pre-seed dollars, and 94% of post-money SAFEs in the first half of 2026 carried a valuation cap. Fewer companies raised, but each check was bigger and caps rose faster still.
Exhibit 5
Source: Carta, State of Pre-Seed and SAFE valuation caps, Q2 2026. The $276,000 average check is the highest in more than four years.
One new wrinkle: on October 6, Carta Law launched a fixed-fee service that runs priced seed rounds from term sheet to close. It is aimed at founders who want a priced round’s structure with something closer to a SAFE’s speed and cost.
The Goodfin read: a higher cap means an early investor pays more for the same slice of the company. That is not bad on its own. It does raise the bar for how big the company has to grow before an early check pays off. Before you invest, check the cap, and check whether it is pre-money or post-money.
The number to read twice: Anthropic’s profit and loss
Anthropic reported a net loss of $80.7 billion for the first half of 2026. On its own adjusted measure, it made an operating profit of $1.6 billion. Both numbers now come from the same document: the S-1 it made public on October 26.
Here is how. Revenue for the six months to June 30 was $16.3 billion, up from $1.2 billion a year earlier and well above the $4.6 billion Anthropic booked in all of 2025. Of the $80.7 billion net loss, $72.4 billion came from a change in the fair value of convertible notes and other financing instruments, which became more valuable as Anthropic did. That charge is non-cash. Another $8.8 billion of other non-operating expense, partly offset by $1.1 billion of interest income, also sits below the operating line. Before those items, the operating loss was $693 million. On the company’s adjusted measure, operating income was $1.6 billion, a 10% margin.
Third-quarter financial statements are not in the filing yet. On October 14, Anthropic told prospective investors that Q3 revenue reached $16.8 billion, according to the Financial Times, Bloomberg and Reuters. That would be more than it booked in the entire first half. It would also mean growth is slowing. Per Reuters, Q3 revenue rose about 45% from the second quarter, after more than doubling from the first quarter ($4.7 billion) to the second ($11.6 billion). Expect the figure to be confirmed, or revised, in an amended S-1 before pricing.
Two more numbers belong next to the loss. The first is the cushion: as of June 30, Anthropic held $112.4 billion in cash and $19.3 billion in short-term investments, and its first-half interest income of $1.1 billion was larger than its operating loss. The second is the bill: the S-1 lists multiyear compute commitments that include $114.5 billion with Google, $110 billion with Amazon, up to $120.5 billion with SpaceX and at least $45 billion with Microsoft, with some contracts running into 2036. The cash covers the business as it runs today. Revenue growth has to pay for those contracts.
Exhibit 6
Source: Anthropic, Form S-1, filed October 26, 2026. Six months ended June 30, 2026. Adjusted operating income is the company’s non-GAAP measure.
We made this point with Cerebras and Oura in September. One company, one period, very different bottom lines. Anthropic is the largest example yet.
The Goodfin read: when a headline says “loss” or “profit,” ask which measure it uses and what it leaves out. Adjusted numbers can show how the business runs. Reported numbers show what the accounting rules require. You need both. Then read the share class as closely as the income statement. In this offering, Class A shares come with the economics, not the control.
First-half figures are from Anthropic’s public S-1. The Q3 revenue figure is reported, not filed. Offering terms have not been set.
Private Market Signal: Valar Atomics vs. Day One Ventures
Anthropic’s S-1 spells out, before anyone buys, how much control public investors will and won’t have. Private investors usually sign their terms years earlier, and those terms can change after they sign. That risk grows as companies stay private longer and raise bigger late-stage rounds: a record 27 companies worldwide raised rounds of $1 billion or more in Q3 2026, per Crunchbase.
A Delaware lawsuit made public on October 9 shows how an early backer’s rights work, and how a majority of other investors can change them.
The terms, in plain English
Pro-rata right: an existing investor’s right to buy into future rounds so it can keep the same ownership. If you own 5% and the company issues new shares, a pro-rata right lets you buy enough to stay at 5%.
Spring-back clause: a provision that, as Valar describes it, would restore investors’ pro-rata rights if one major investor joins a round that the others were asked to sit out.
Declaratory relief: asking a court to rule on what a contract means before either side claims damages.
What happened
Nuclear startup Valar Atomics raised a $1 billion Series B led by Sequoia at a $6 billion valuation, announced August 3. According to Valar, it asked its major investors to keep their Series B allocations at zero so the spring-back clause would not kick in, and all agreed except Day One Ventures. The day before closing, investors holding a majority of Valar’s stock amended its Investor Rights Agreement to remove the spring-back clause.
Day One, an early backer, sought to use its pro-rata rights in the round, and Valar objected. Valar says Day One put $1 million into the seed round and $15 million into the Series A. Valar is now asking a Delaware court to confirm its reading of the agreement.
Both sides
Valar’s position: investors holding a majority of its stock approved the amendment. Valar is asking the court to confirm that the amendment was valid.
Day One’s position: its rights could not be removed without its consent, and four of the six major investors joined the round without waiving their rights. Day One says it offered to give up most of its Series B allocation, and that Valar instead asked it to give up its rights for all future rounds. Day One’s founder, Masha Bucher, has said the firm has no interest in suing. Valar’s CEO, Isaiah Taylor, says Day One hired the law firm Quinn Emanuel before Valar filed.
The court has not ruled.
Why it matters: your investor rights are only as strong as the rules for changing them. Many agreements let a majority amend terms that bind every holder. Whoever you invest alongside, know which of your rights can be changed without your vote.
A note for founders: the terms you sign with early investors shape your options years later. Know which provisions a majority can amend, which need each investor’s consent, and how you would handle a strategic investor you want in a future round.
What should investors watch next?
Anthropic’s road to pricing. Anthropic confidentially submitted its draft registration statement on June 1 and made it public on October 26. It plans to list Class A shares on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the underwriters. SEC staff practice for companies that first file confidentially requires the public filing to sit for at least 15 days before the roadshow begins, which puts the earliest start on November 10, the Tuesday of the week of November 9 that earlier reports had pointed to. The Wall Street Journal now reports trading could begin the week of November 16, at a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion and a raise of $100 billion or more. Those figures are reported, not filed: the price range and share count in the S-1 are still blank.
Exhibit 7
Source: SEC EDGAR; Anthropic; The Wall Street Journal for listing timing. Status as of October 30. The November 10 date is not a company date. It is calculated from the SEC’s 15-day rule.
The filing answers some of the questions we raised in September and leaves others open. Read the following three things:
Who is selling: Anthropic and existing holders will both sell, and the filing lists five co-founders among the selling stockholders, but the split between new and existing stock is still blank.
Who votes: Class A buyers get one vote per share, while a single Class F share held by an entity organized by the seven co-founders carries 50.1% of the vote on general stockholder matters, so all Class A holders together hold at most 49.9%. The Long-Term Benefit Trust elects a majority of the board.
When others can sell: the filing sets out a staggered lock-up (the period after listing when existing holders cannot sell). Most holders are fully released after 180 days, or sooner if first-quarter 2027 results come first. The co-founders and holders of more than 0.5% of fully diluted shares face restrictions lasting up to a year, though the co-founders can sell up to 29% of their locked shares on that same 180-day-or-Q1-results schedule. The lead underwriters can waive any of these restrictions early. If you hold through a fund or SPV, the vehicle is the holder of record: the lock-up applies at its level, and when you can receive shares or cash also depends on the vehicle’s own documents.
If the timeline moves, watch the reason given. It will say a lot about how open the window is, even for the largest offerings.
The Fed held. On October 28 it kept its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00%. Two of the 12 voters dissented in favor of another quarter-point hike, and futures now put the odds of a December increase above 80%. Anthropic will be marketing its shares into that backdrop.
Oura’s next move. Watch whether it comes back with a lower price range, a smaller share of selling holders, or a private round instead.
Three questions for your next private market investments
If this company doesn’t go public for five more years, how else could I get my money back?
Is the manager’s fund size and strategy built for a slower exit market?
Which of my rights can be changed without my vote?
Disclosure: Goodfin is a technology company and is not a broker-dealer or registered investment adviser. Goodfin and its affiliates may have commercial interests in companies discussed in this edition. Nothing here is investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or a solicitation. Private investments are high risk, often illiquid, and can lose all of their value. Past performance does not predict future results.
Sources
Renaissance Capital, 3Q 2026 US IPO Market Review: Q3 deal count and proceeds, SK hynix, Holtec
Renaissance Capital ETFs, Q3 2026 performance recap: IPO ETF and S&P 500 ETF returns
Renaissance Capital, US IPO Week Ahead, October 16, 2026: IPO Index year to date, empty calendar
Renaissance Capital, Weekly Recap, October 2, 2026: Oura valuation pushback, secondary share
CNBC, September 29, 2026: postponement counts, citing Renaissance Capital
Crestwood Advisors, October 2026 market update: Fed decision and Treasury yields
Anthropic, Form S-1, October 26, 2026: first-half financials, share classes, underwriters, selling stockholders, lock-up schedule
Anthropic, S-1 announcement: exchange, ticker and lead banks
Investing.com, October 26, 2026: Wall Street Journal-reported listing timing, valuation range and raise size
PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor, Q3 2026: deal value, unicorns, exits, fundraising
Crunchbase News, October 5, 2026: billion-dollar rounds
Carta, SAFE valuation caps, Q2 2026 and Carta, State of Pre-Seed, Q2 2026
Reuters, via Business Today: Anthropic confidential filing date
Financial Times, via The Next Web: Anthropic Q3 revenue; Bloomberg for roadshow timing
Reuters, via BusinessDay, October 15, 2026: Anthropic quarterly revenue for Q1 to Q3 2026
Bloomberg, October 15, 2026: Anthropic Q3 revenue and adjusted margin
Forbes, October 26, 2026: Anthropic compute commitments disclosed in the S-1
TokenPost, October 2026: Anthropic lock-up triggers
Business Insider, via Yahoo Finance, October 2026: Anthropic lock-up schedule
CNBC, October 28, 2026: Fed decision and dissents
Fox Business, October 28, 2026: CME FedWatch odds of a December hike
Axios, August 3, 2026, Dealroom and Axios, October 15, 2026: Valar Atomics and Day One Ventures
Energy Transition Now, October 2026: public statements by Valar’s CEO and Day One’s founder
Read More
